Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Increases by 0.8%
As reported in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report for November 2025, Nigeria experienced a modest uptick in crude oil production, reaching 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in October 2025. This marked a small improvement of about 0.8% compared to the 1.3 mb/d recorded in the previous month of September. However, even with this minor gain, the country’s production levels stayed under its allocated OPEC quota of 1.5 mb/d, extending a streak of shortfall for the third month in a row.
At the same time, the benchmark price for Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude dropped noticeably, sliding from $69.44 per barrel in September to $65.53 per barrel in October—a reduction of $3.91 per barrel. These ongoing difficulties in achieving quota targets highlight deeper issues within the sector, such as recurring pipeline sabotage and broader operational hurdles.
The broader drop in crude oil prices during October stemmed primarily from a global surplus, where supply outpaced demand by roughly 500,000 barrels per day. This combination of reduced prices and lower-than-expected output has significant repercussions for Nigeria’s economy, particularly in terms of diminished revenue from oil exports. It contributes to fiscal instability, heightens macroeconomic risks, and adds strain to the stability of the national currency.
To tackle these persistent production gaps, authorities could prioritize bolstering security around key infrastructure and enhancing protective measures to curb vandalism and interruptions. Greater focus on developing the downstream sector, including initiatives to commercialize natural gas, might also lessen the nation’s heavy reliance on raw crude exports. Furthermore, accelerating economic diversification strategies would help shield the country from volatility in the international oil market, which remains influenced by a wide array of unpredictable worldwide elements.
