Crude Oil Price Watch: Prices increased by 9.60% in June

According to the monthly report published by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in July 2025, the value of the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) saw a notable crude oil price increase of $6.11 (9.60%), rising from $63.62 per barrel in May 2025 to $69.73 per barrel in June 2025.

In a similar trend, ICE Brent experienced a month-on-month rise of $5.79, moving from $64.01 in May 2025 to $69.80 in June 2025. Concurrently, the Nigerian Bonny Light rose by 11.1% ($7.18), reaching $71.73 in June 2025, up from $64.55 in May 2025. This increase in global crude oil prices is largely attributed to escalating disruptions in oil-exporting regions, particularly due to rising tensions in the Middle East, which have likely increased market volatility and contributed to the price surge.

Typically, an increase in crude oil prices results in higher oil revenue for Nigeria, thereby enhancing the country’s foreign exchange inflows and bolstering its foreign exchange reserves. However, Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil revenues is precarious, as evidenced by the nation’s history with crude oil price fluctuations and their subsequent impact on the economy. The government is urged to implement targeted reforms aimed at stimulating the production and export of goods from the non-oil sector, which would subsequently improve the country’s non-oil revenue.

Additionally, it is recommended that the government allocate surplus oil revenues into a stability fund to protect the economy from potential shocks arising from future price declines. There should also be intensified efforts to promote the domestic refining of Nigeria’s crude oil and to enhance non-oil revenue generation through improved tax compliance and administrative reforms.