Why Was Headline Inflation at 24.23% in March 2025?

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ Consumer Price Index report for March 2025, Headline inflation rate rose to 24.23%, marking a 1.05 percentage point increase from the 23.18% recorded in February 2025. The report also showed that food inflation stood at 21.79% for the month under review, reflecting a 1.72 percentage point drop from the 23.51% recorded in the previous month.

By state profile, food inflation was highest in Oyo State at 34.41%, followed by Kaduna at 31.14%, and Kebbi at 30.85%. Conversely, states such as Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Sokoto recorded the slowest rises in food inflation at 12.81%, 14.02%, and 14.83%, respectively. The high food inflation can be attributed to increases in the cost of complementary food staples such as garri, potatoes, and honey.

Additionally, the depreciation of the naira and fluctuating exchange rates have raised the cost of imported food and agricultural products. This, coupled with escalating farmer-herder conflicts and banditry, has led to widespread farmland abandonment, particularly in the Middle Belt and Northwest regions. As inflationary pressures continue to rise, increased food prices will have dire consequences, especially for low-income households, which allocate a larger share of their income to food.

Reduced purchasing power is also expected to worsen malnutrition, as high prices push families to substitute nutritious foods with cheaper, less healthy alternatives. Therefore, the government must strengthen security in agricultural zones, ensure safe farming areas in affected states, provide subsidised inputs and access to mechanised tools for smallholder farmers, and rebuild rural agricultural infrastructure.