Nigeria’s GDP growth projected at 3.8% and Inflation 24% by Year End 2025
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has released its Half-Year 2025 report, reviewing recent economic trends and outlining expectations for the remainder of the year (2025H2). According to the report, real GDP growth is projected to average 4.0% in the second half of the year, resulting in an overall annual growth rate of 3.8%. This marks a modest improvement compared to 2023 and 2024, largely fueled by the Services sector, which continues to benefit from rapid digitalisation, expanding financial services, and steady urban growth.
In contrast, both the Agriculture and Industrial sectors are expected to post only moderate growth, constrained by persistent challenges such as flooding, rising input costs, and poor infrastructure. The Oil and Oil-Refining sub-sectors, however, are anticipated to provide a lift to industrial output. This optimism stems from higher domestic crude production and the gradual strengthening of Nigeria’s refining capacity. Still, NESG warns that while growth is returning, it remains too weak to drive a meaningful rise in per capita income or substantially reduce unemployment. The report stresses that without stronger links between macroeconomic progress and household welfare, recovery gains may remain uneven.
The NESG also projects crude oil prices to hover between US$76 and US$80 per barrel in 2025H2, remaining slightly above the government’s benchmark of US$75 per barrel. Nigeria’s crude production is estimated at 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd), an improvement over 2024 levels but still below the 2.06 mbpd target set in the national budget—an indication of ongoing structural and operational challenges within the sector.
Inflation is forecast to average 24.5% in the second half of the year and end 2025 at around 24%. This moderation reflects the easing effects of the fuel subsidy removal, improved foreign exchange liquidity following exchange rate reforms, and relative stability in key prices. Nonetheless, inflationary pressures may persist due to cost-push factors.
To consolidate growth and ensure broader economic resilience, NESG recommends that policymakers accelerate structural reforms aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity, improving infrastructure, and diversifying exports beyond oil. Equally important are fiscal discipline and focused public investment in essential social and productive sectors, which the group identifies as critical to ensuring that macroeconomic recovery translates into inclusive growth and better living standards for Nigerians.
