PENGASSAN strike reduced Nigeria’s oil output to 1.39 million bpd
The October 2025 report by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed a further drop in Nigeria’s oil output, deepening concerns about the nation’s fiscal stability. According to the data, oil production declined by 0.045 million barrels per day (bpd), sliding from 1.434 million bpd in August 2025 to 1.39 million bpd in September 2025. This fall amounts to a 3.1% month-on-month decrease and marks the second consecutive month of reduced production. As a result, average output for the third quarter settled at 1.444 million bpd, down 2.5% from the 1.481 million bpd recorded in the second quarter.
When compared to key benchmarks, the production level stood 7.3% below Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and substantially lower—by 33.8%—than the national production target of 2.1 million bpd. This sustained decline is concerning for a country whose public revenue is still predominantly driven by the oil sector.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) attributed a portion of the September decline to a three-day strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which temporarily disrupted operations and reduced output. While short-term challenges such as labour actions may cause temporary setbacks, the broader issue is the economy’s vulnerability to fluctuations in oil production and global oil prices.
To address this vulnerability and build a more resilient economic foundation, policymakers need to advance structural reforms that expand non-oil revenue sources. A key step is the effective implementation of the tax reform bill, which, if properly executed, would enhance internally generated revenue, strengthen government finances, and reduce dependence on volatile oil receipts.
Another crucial priority is restoring, modernising, and ensuring the efficient operation of domestic refineries. Functional refineries would reduce reliance on imported petroleum products, improve foreign exchange retention, boost local value addition, and raise government earnings.
In the long term, reducing overdependence on oil requires genuine economic diversification. Strategic investments in emerging and high-potential sectors such as technology, mining, and agriculture—supported by targeted loan facilities and capacity-building programmes for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs)—will stimulate job creation, broaden the revenue base, and promote sustainable and inclusive growth.
