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Nigeria Marginally Exits Recession, Records Positive GDP of 0.11% in Q4 of 2020 – Agwu, C. J

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Q4 2020), representing the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The performance appeared to have signaled an exit from the second recession. Though weak, the positive growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters, the NBS stated.

As a result, while the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than growth rate recorded the previous year by –2.44 percentage points, it was higher by 3.74 percentage points compared to Q3 2020

According to the fourth quarter 2020 GDP estimate released Thursday, on a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 9.68 per cent indicating a second positive consecutive quarter on quarter real growth rate in 2020 after two negative quarters.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43,564,006.29 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39,577,340.04 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 10.07%. This growth rate was lower relative to growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 by –2.26% points but higher than the preceding quarter by 6.68% points with growth rates recorded at 12.34% and 3.39% respectively. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors

Nigeria’s 2020 Quarter 4 GDP

Here are highlights of the GDP Performance by the National Bureau of Statistics

The non-oil sector grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020, slower than the 2.26% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but better than the –2.51% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter. For the full year of 2020 however, the non-oil sector grew –1.25% compared to 2.06% in 2019. Growth in the sector was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications & Broadcasting).

Other drivers were Agriculture (Crop Production), Real Estate, Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco), Mining and Quarrying (Quarrying and other Minerals), and Construction, accounting for positive GDP. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.13% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 (92.68%) and the third quarter of 2020 (91.27%). For 2020, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.84% to real GDP, higher than 91.22% recorded in 2019.

Agricultural sector grew by 14.03% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q4 2020, showing a rise of 0.23% points from the same quarter of 2019. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 13.52%, there was an increase of 0.51% points.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the nominal year on year growth rate of Trade stood at –0.66%. This indicates a decrease by –2.69% points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 growth rate of 2.03% but 9.16% points higher than the previous quarter growth rate of –9.82%.

In nominal terms, Other Services grew by –1.76% (year-on-year) in Q4 2020. This growth rate was lower than the 4.21% growth rate recorded in the same quarter of the previous year and –5.11% in Q3 2020 by –5.98% points and 3.34% points respectively.

Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 was recorded at 24.60% (year-on-year), -1.69% points lower than recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 (26.29%) but 11.06% points higher than the preceding quarter’s 13.54%. Quarter on quarter growth of the sector was recorded at 5.78%.

In nominal terms, the Public Administration sector grew by 4.47% in Q4 2020, 1.79% points higher than the corresponding quarter of 2019 but –1.82% points lower relative to Q3 2020. Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew by 15.08%.

Nominal growth in the Education sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 was –5.86% (year-on-year), down by –13.04% points from growth of 7.18% reported in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but up 9.89% points when compared to Q3 2020.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, an average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded. This was lower than the daily average production of 2.00mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by -0.44mbpd and the third quarter of 2020 by –0.11mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was –19.76% (year-on-year) in Q4 2020 indicating a decrease by –26.12% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Growth decreased by –5.87% points when compared to Q3 2020. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –26.27% in Q4 2020. For 2020, the oil sector grew at –8.89% compared to 4.59% in 2019. The oil sector contributed 5.87% to total real GDP in Q4 2020, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32% and 8.73% respectively.

Download the Report Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Q4 & FULL YEAR 2020) HERE

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