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October Inflation report for Nigeria – Inflation rose by 61bps to 27.33%

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  • October’s headline inflation rate rose to 27.33% y/y, a gain of +61bps over the previous month.
  • Headline rate 27.33% y/y (26.72% September);
  • Core rate 22.58% y/y (21.84%); and
  • Food rate 31.54% y/y (30.64%). 
  • Month over month, headline inflation decreased by -37 basis points to 1.73% from 2.10% the prior month.
  • In comparison with the previous month, there was a +88bps increase in the food inflation rate (31.54%). Vegetables, milk, cheese, eggs, bread, cereals, potatoes, tubers (potatoes, yam, etc.), fish, oil, and fat saw the most price hikes.
  • The year-over-year inflation of imported food prices rose by +104bps to 22.76% y/y from 21.72% y/y in the prior month.
  • Core inflation rose from 21.84% y/y in the previous month to 22.58% y/y, a gain of +73bps. There was a sense of inflationary pressure in housing, medical services, pharmaceuticals, air and ground passenger transportation, and all of these areas.
  • Gas, water, electricity, and other fuels in dwellings saw increases of 1.68% m/m and 22.90% y/y. Additionally, the transportation category had increases of 1.35% m/m and 27.04% y/y.
  • Kogi recorded the highest headline inflation rate (34.20% y/y) among the states according to the NBS. Borno, meanwhile, had the lowest result (20.06% y/y) in October 23. It is important to remember that because of disparities in consumption patterns, household baskets fluctuate between states.
  • Structural problems like high transportation costs, inadequate infrastructure, storage problems, pressure on exchange rates, high PMS costs, and insecurity (particularly in areas that produce food) continue to be the main causes of inflation.
  • We anticipate that, at its upcoming meeting on November 20 and 21, the MPC will gradually raise the policy rate in light of the ongoing increases in headline inflation this year (+551bps).
  • To read the full report, click here SOURCE: Coronation Merchant Bank

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