Nigeria’s leading commodities market player, AFEX, has unveiled its 2022 Wet Season Crop Production Report in a hybrid event hosted at the AFEX head office in Abuja on November 16th 2022. The report, which seeks to provide accurate and reliable data to aid the understanding of the national food system through farmer surveys and measurement of transaction level data, tracks six key commodities and their performance in the preceding season. As reflected in the report, price and market changes across maize, paddy rice, sorghum, soybean, cocoa, and sesame have been affected due to predictable seasonality effects, activities in the agricultural value chain and larger macroeconomic global events.
The 2022 Wet Season Crop Production Report forecasts an average decline in production levels of up to 11.5% across commodities like maize, paddy rice, sorghum, and cocoa, while soybean and sesame will experience a close to 6.5% increase in production levels. Nigeria’s most consumed grains are currently faced with declining food balance sheets as consumption levels rise faster than production levels, worsening food insecurity.
AFEX’s Head of Market Data and Research, David Ibidapo, who presented the report findings at the launch event indicated that “AFEX’s annual crop production report seeks to provide robust market intelligence for agriculture value chain players in Nigeria. We have more than doubled the count of farmers surveyed for this research, up from 9117 farmers surveyed last year to 20,677 farmers surveyed for this year’s report.” He also specified key indicators measured through the survey, stating that “Factors such as land usage, inputs (quality of seeds and fertilizer usage), weather conditions, and the farmers’ output expectations were put into primary consideration.”
Higher prices were forecasted across all commodities in the report. Maize which faces a projected decline in production levels of up to 14%, is subsequently projected to reach a higher average price point ranging between (486.72USD) NGN214,980/MT and (498.09USD) NGN220,000/MT by the end of Q4 2022, compared to an average price of (475.97USD) NGN210,229/MT in Q4 2021. Also, soybean price is projected to rise by 6% by May 2023.
The projected price hikes across commodities in the report were also tied majorly to incidences of flooding resulting from incessant rainfall in key producing regions. This is indicated to further heighten the gap between production and output levels by farmers.
The effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis continue to be felt in the local agricultural commodity markets, especially because of the hike in the price of fertiliser. This negative impact was also highlighted in the report as affecting the output level of most commodities. The report forecasts paddy rice as being the most susceptible to production and output pressures, facing close to a 22.47% decline in production volumes this year in the wake of the crisis-induced fertiliser price hike.
Access to reliable data is a recurring limitation for agriculture on the continent. AFEX has consistently advocated for a food balance sheet for the continent that will strengthen productivity improvement efforts, subsequently enhancing food security.