Global and Nigeria’s economic growth to decline in 2023 and 2024
Global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024. This is as contained in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update Report for July 2023 titled “Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges,”
According to the report, while the projection for 2023 was slightly higher than forecasted in the April 2023 WEO, it remained low by historical standards. “In comparison to April 2023 WEO projections, growth has been upgraded by 0.2 percentage points for 2023, with no change for 2024.”
The report states that the forecast for 2023-24 remains significantly lower than the historical (2000-19) annual average of 3.8%. It is also lower than the historical average across broad income groups, both in terms of overall GDP and per capita GDP. It further states that advanced economies drove the fall in GDP from 2022 to 2023, with weaker manufacturing and idiosyncratic factors countering stronger services activity.
“For advanced economies, the projected growth slowdown for 2023 remains significant, falling from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023.” “Approximately 93% of advanced economies are expected to have lower growth in 2023, and growth in 2024 among this group of economies is expected to remain at 1.4%.” – the report added
The IMF report equally projects that global headline inflation would fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024 while the growth prognosis for emerging markets and developing economies is essentially consistent for 2023 and 2024, with noticeable fluctuations among regions. “For emerging market and developing economies, growth is projected to be broadly stable at 4.0 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in 2024, with modest revisions of 0.1 percentage point in 2023 and -0.1 percentage point in 2024”, it said in part.
For Sub-Saharan Africa growth is expected to fall to 3.5% in 2023 before rising to 4.1% in 2024. For Nigeria it projects that economic growth is expected to steadily fall in 2023 and 2024, below that for Sub-Saharan Africa, (3.2 percent in 2023 and 3.0 percent in 2024), in line with April the WEO estimates, due to security concerns in the oil sector.
