Business and Economy

Kogi state had the highest headline inflation rate at 35.79% year-on-year in January ’24.

  • In January, the inflation rate increased by +92 basis points (compared to the previous month) to 28.92% year-on-year.
  • On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate rose by +35 basis points to 2.64%, compared to 2.29% in the previous month.
  • Food inflation saw a significant increase of +148 basis points, reaching 35.41% compared to the previous month.
  • This increase was mainly driven by higher prices of bread, cereals, oil and fat, meat, milk, cheese, eggs, potatoes, tubers, fruits, fish, cocoa, and yam, among other food items.
  • Imported food price inflation also rose by +140 basis points on a year-on-year basis, reaching 26.30% compared to the previous month’s 24.90%.
  • Core inflation increased by +53 basis points to 23.59% year-on-year from 23.06% in the previous month.
  • Notably, inflationary pressure was observed in sectors such as passenger transport by air and road, medical services, housing, and pharmaceutical products.
  • The housing water, electricity, gas, and other fuel segment experienced a year-on-year increase of 24.7% and a month-on-month increase of 2.1%.
  • The transport segment also recorded a year-on-year increase of 25.9% and a month-on-month increase of 1.3%.
  • According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Kogi state had the highest headline inflation rate at 35.79% year-on-year, while Borno state had the lowest at 22.57% year-on-year in January ’24.
  • It is important to note that household consumption patterns vary across states, leading to different inflation rates.
  • Inflationary pressures continue to be driven by structural issues such as high logistic costs, inadequate infrastructure, storage challenges, exchange rate fluctuations, elevated cost of petroleum products, and insecurity, particularly in food-producing areas.
  • The first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting under the new Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor is scheduled for the 26th and 27th of February 2024. The CBN plans to hold six meetings in 2024, and it is anticipated that there will be a rate hike at the upcoming MPC meeting.
  • We expect inflation to remain high in the first quarter of 2024, followed by gradual declines due to positive base effects and the implementation of restrictive monetary policies.
  • SOURCE: Coronation Economic Note

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