Global Markets

Bitcoin Prices may rise up to 1,000% to $500,000 in 2024 – Arjun Kharpal and Ryan Browne

Bitcoin experienced a significant surge in 2023, with the digital currency witnessing a remarkable 152% increase throughout the year. Various experts, both within and outside the cryptocurrency industry, have expressed their belief that this upward trend will persist.

After reaching an all-time high in 2021, bitcoin faced a challenging period in 2022, characterized by the collapse of prominent projects, liquidity problems, and bankruptcies.

During that year, FTX, which was once among the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, filed for bankruptcy. In 2023, its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was found guilty of all seven criminal charges brought against him by federal prosecutors in the U.S.

Similarly, in 2023, Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of Binance, pleaded guilty to criminal charges and resigned from his position as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice.

Now that those two high-profile cases have been resolved, many cryptocurrency executives view it as an opportunity to move forward and leave behind the negative actions of two prominent figures in the industry.

With enthusiasm returning to the crypto markets, industry leaders are proclaiming the beginning of a new bull run, based primarily on two factors: the upcoming bitcoin “halving” and the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.

The halving, which occurs every four years, is a programmed event in bitcoin’s code. It involves reducing the rewards that miners receive for mining bitcoin by half. This helps maintain a limited supply of bitcoin, with a maximum of 21 million ever in existence. In previous price cycles, the halving has often preceded an increase in the price of bitcoin.

Furthermore, there is growing anticipation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will finally approve the first-ever bitcoin ETF, despite years of opposition. This would enable investors to purchase a product that tracks the price of bitcoin without needing to directly engage with a cryptocurrency exchange or hold the digital currency themselves. The industry hopes that this development will attract a broader range of investors, particularly large institutional investors.

Amidst all the excitement, there are some bold predictions being made about the future price of bitcoin. Here are a few examples…

Mark Mobius: $60,000
In 2022, Mark Mobius accurately predicted that bitcoin would drop to $20,000 from its trading price of over $28,000. He then maintained a price call of $10,000 for 2023, but unfortunately, that didn’t happen as bitcoin rallied instead.

Looking ahead to 2024, Mobius shared with CNBC his belief that bitcoin could reach $60,000 by the end of the year. When asked about the rationale behind this prediction, Mobius admitted that there wasn’t any specific reason, except for the likelihood of a bitcoin ETF being approved, which has generated increased interest in the cryptocurrency.

Bit Mining: $75,000
Youwei Yang, the chief economist of Bit Mining, a crypto mining firm, has a more optimistic outlook for bitcoin’s price. Yang believes that by 2024, bitcoin could reach a high of $75,000.

Yang attributes this anticipated price rise to the potential approval of a bitcoin ETF, which would lead to greater institutional investment in bitcoin. Additionally, the bitcoin halving scheduled for May 2024, which would limit the bitcoin supply, is expected to contribute to the price increase.

In an emailed note, Yang stated that he anticipates bitcoin to trade between $25,000 and $75,000 in 2024, and between $45,000 and $130,000 in 2025. However, he also cautioned that while high prices are possible, not all investors will profit due to market volatility and the common human tendencies of fear and greed.

Yang believes that the approval of ETFs for bitcoin will be the most important development in 2024. However, he advises caution due to the past failures of major crypto firms and the upcoming election year, which could make crypto a political issue.

Timing the market is difficult, but Yang suggests a gradual approach of buying during bear markets and selling during bull markets. This strategy may be more effective for those who don’t have early accumulations of bitcoin.

CoinShares: $80,000

According to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, the digital asset landscape is set for significant change in 2024. The potential approval of bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. could expand the investor base and integrate cryptocurrencies more closely with traditional financial markets. Butterfill believes that a 20% increase in investments could potentially push bitcoin prices to $80,000.

Butterfill also mentions that central banks cutting interest rates could play a decisive role in driving bitcoin higher. Additionally, factors beyond the halving, such as potential interest rate reductions, could significantly impact the future price of bitcoin.

Nexo: $100,000

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of Nexo, a cryptocurrency exchange, remains optimistic about bitcoin’s future. Despite the price collapse in 2022, Trenchev believes that bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2024. He attributes this potential surge to the Bitcoin halving and the potential approval of multiple bitcoin ETFs. Trenchev acknowledges that the journey to $100,000 may not be smooth, with unexpected obstacles and occasional declines along the way. Additionally, he believes that the most significant gains will come from digital tokens and projects that have yet to gain widespread attention.

Standard Chartered: $100,000
Standard Chartered recently reaffirmed its prediction of a $100,000 price target for bitcoin. The bank believes that the approval of multiple ETFs will be a driving force behind this surge.

The bank also mentioned that the upcoming halving event will provide further support for bitcoin’s price.

Carol Alexander: $100,000
In 2022, Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, accurately predicted bitcoin’s future price movements.

She anticipated a drop to $10,000 in 2022, and indeed, bitcoin reached a low of around $15,480 that year. For 2023, Alexander predicted a rally to as high as $50,000, and bitcoin did reach a yearly high of approximately $44,700 in early December.

According to Alexander, during the first quarter of 2024, bitcoin will trade within the range of $40,000 to $55,000 due to the influence of professional traders creating volatility.

The next phase of bitcoin’s journey will depend on the resolution of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s charges against Coinbase and Binance. This resolution is seen as a prerequisite for the approval of a bitcoin ETF, as noted by Alexander and other experts. The SEC filed lawsuits against both Coinbase and Binance in 2023.

Alexander predicts that the settlement of charges will likely happen in the second or third quarter, leading to the approval of ETFs and a rise in bitcoin’s price to $70,000, a new record high. However, the future price will depend on the capabilities of ETF providers like Blackrock and Fidelity to prevent price manipulations and excessive volatility on exchanges. Alexander believes that if these providers can reduce volatility, the price could exceed $100,000 by the end of 2024.

Matrixport: $125,000

On the other hand, Matrixport, a crypto financial services firm, has projected even higher prices for bitcoin. They anticipate that bitcoin will reach $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the end of the following year. Matrixport attributes this growth to a favorable macro environment, expected inflation decline, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Many experts also view easing monetary policy as supportive for bitcoin, while others consider it a safe haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty.

CoinFund: Up to $500,000

CoinFund, a venture capital firm, has made a bold prediction for the price of bitcoin in 2024. According to Seth Ginns, the managing partner at CoinFund, bitcoin’s price is strongly influenced by the dollar and real yields, both of which are currently decreasing. Additionally, Ginns believes that the launch of the BTC spot ETF and the potential approval of ETH spot ETFs later in 2024 will attract significant investments.

Ginns also mentioned that he sees the industry moving towards “regulatory normalization.” While he believes that bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin in the next cycle, he considers a more realistic expectation for 2024 to be between $250,000 and $500,000 for bitcoin. SOURCE: CNBC by Arjun Kharpal@ARJUNKHARPAL and Ryan Browne@RYAN_BROWNE_

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